The Theory of Demographic Transition
The theory of demographic transition was propounded by M. Thomson in 1929, but it was systematically and scientifically given by Frank Notenstein in the year 1945. Notenstein is called the father of demography.These scholars defined different phases under the demographic transition. Some scholars have given three phases and some have four-five phases. But C.P Bleaker has given five phases on the basis of population change.
Phase I : In this phase both the birth rate and death rate are high, due to which both counter balance each other and the problem of population growth does not arise. The reasons for the high death rate are considered to be illiteracy, poverty, unemployment, conservative and traditional society, lack of health facilities, etc. Before 1921 India was in this state.
Phase II: In this phase, the economy picks up the pace of development, as health facilities are greatly developed, poverty and unemployment start decreasing. As a result, the mortality rate would have been significantly lower.
while the birth rate remains high. Due to this the population progresses very rapidly in this phase. That is why it is also called ' Population Explosion Stage'.
Third phase: Growth in the economy takes place at a rapid pace, due to which the condition of women improves and education expands. Therefore, there is a decrease in the birth rate and a rapid decline in the death rate. Presently India is in this state.
Fourth stage: In a continuously moving economy, high food production and proper preventive measures to prevent diseases, reduce the death rate and decrease the birth rate due to more freedom and employment opportunities for women. Due to which the birth rate and death rate become almost equal and the population remains constant.
Fifth Stage : In this stage the economy is in a fully developed/mature stage, in which both the birth rate and the death rate are low, but the birth rate becomes less than the death rate. Due to this the population starts decreasing. At present most of the developed countries are passing through this stage.
